Source: Goldman Sachs expects gold to ‘outperform’ amid growing fears of a stock market correction by Sam Meredith of CNBC on 26/03/2018.
- “Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to say,” Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Eugene King, said in a research note published Monday.
- Last week, the Federal Reserve approved the widely anticipated quarter-point rate hike to put the new benchmark funds rate at 1.75 percent. Central bankers, led by Jerome Powell in his first meeting as chairman, also hinted the path of rate hikes could be more aggressive.
- Gold prices were trading at $1,347.92 per troy ounce at 1:40 p.m. London time, after hitting its highest level since mid-February earlier in the session.
Goldman Sachs is expecting gold to “outperform” over the coming months.
For the first time in more than five years, commodity analysts at the U.S. investment bank are bullish on yellow metal prices. Goldman’s analysts said signs of an uptick in inflation and the “increased risk” of a stock market correction should both prove to be price supportive for bullion.
“Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to say,” Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Eugene King, said in a research note published Monday.
“Based on empirical data for the past six tightening cycles, gold has outperformed post rate hikes four times,” the analysts added.
‘Counterintuitive’ gold forecast
Last week, the Federal Reserve approved the widely anticipated quarter-point rate hike to put the new benchmark funds rate at 1.75 percent. Central bankers, led by Jerome Powell in his first meeting as chairman, also hinted the path of rate hikes could be more aggressive.
The market is currently pricing in three rate hikes for 2018 — and that remained the baseline forecast from the U.S. central bank, but at least one more increase was added in the following two years.
Goldman has forecast four interest rate increases this year. And while analysts at the bank admitted its upbeat gold projections might then seem “counterintuitive,” it pointed to data from past tightening cycles as reason to be optimistic over precious metal prices.
Gold prices were trading at $1,347.92 per troy ounce at 1:40 p.m. London time, after hitting its highest level since mid-February earlier in the session.
—CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
